LOS ANGELES — Thirteen years after the original became the highest-grossing film ever made, “Avatar: The Way of Water” opened in cinemas worldwide on Friday — and with it, Hollywood’s most expensive wager that audiences still want to leave the house.
James Cameron’s sequel returns to Pandora, swaps forest for ocean, and runs three hours and twelve minutes. It reportedly cost more than 350 million dollars to make, before marketing, and Cameron himself has said it must be among the biggest films in history just to break even. Industry estimates suggest the target is around two billion dollars.
The context could hardly be less forgiving. In 2009, “Avatar” sold itself as an experience that could not be had at home, and 3D televisions were the future. In 2022, 3D is an afterthought, streaming has trained audiences to wait, and the Chinese market — crucial to any film with billion-dollar ambitions — is in deep uncertainty.
Yet the case for optimism is Cameron’s own record. “Titanic” and the first “Avatar” were both dismissed before release as overpriced follies; both became the biggest films of their eras by word of mouth, not opening weekends. Analysts note that his films do not open, they accumulate.
Early screenings suggest the accumulation has begun respectably, if not spectacularly. The real answer will come in January and February, when the film has the holidays to itself. Cameron has already shot parts of the third and fourth instalments. Whether audiences see them depends on how many follow him back under the water now.
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