Briefing reporters hours before Melissa is expected to make landfall in Jamaica,  a representative of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), said that the category 5 system “will be the strongest on the planet this year” putting a million people at direct risk, “including families which are still recovering from Hurricane Beryl” which hit the island nation only 16 months ago.  

“Roofs will be tested. Flood water will rise. Isolation will become a harsh reality for many,” said Necephor Mghendi, the IFRC’s Head of Delegation for the English and Dutch-speaking Caribbean.

‘Total structural failure’

 “Total structural failure is likely,” said Anne-Claire Fontan, a tropical cyclone specialist with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), quoting the United States National Hurricane Center in Miami.  

“I have never seen this sentence before… it’s a massive impact that is expected to be in Jamaica,” she said.

Sustained winds of 280 kilometres per hour have been reported as the system makes its way westward towards Jamaica on Tuesday morning. Heavy rains continue in the region, with deaths already reported in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica.

Ms. Fontan explained that the system will bring three times the normal amount of precipitation for a rainy month in Jamaica, or up to 700 millimeters (27.5 inches).

Catastrophic flash flooding, landslides

“It means that there will be a catastrophic flash floodings and numerous landslides,” she explained. “In addition to the rain and to the destructive wind, you will have storm surge that is expected as well on the southern coast of Jamaica with a three to four meters high in addition to destructive waves.”

Speaking from Port of Spain in Trinidad and Tobago the IFRC’s Mr. Mghendi said that while Melissa is moving as a very slow speed – approximately six kilometres per hour – the “extreme” rainfall and winds are expected to cause “extensive infrastructure damage, isolating communities and cutting off essential services for days if not weeks”.  

“The humanitarian threat is severe and it’s immediate,” he said.

Many families are currently still rebuilding from the impacts of Beryl last year and restoring their livelihoods.  

Rebuilding from Beryl, wiped out

“Melissa now threatens the same communities and maybe all the activities will be wiped out,” he warned. “This is an example of how… extreme climate weather events can actually provide shocks to communities and stretch the capacities to withstand them,” he explained.

The IFRC official went on to stress that coastal communities remain financially strained, and informal settlements are at risk from intense winds as well as soils that are already saturated by the rainy season, with an “increased likelihood of landslides”.

“The first order of business is to save as many lives as possible in the event,” said Jens Laerke, the spokesperson for UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), explaining that this is “why we’re seeing evacuations going on, shelters being built… advice is going out.”

The IFRC’s Mr. Mghendi said that in Jamaica the authorities have prepared some 800 shelters and that volunteers are supporting evacuations, helping distribute relief items and reinforcing early warning messages.

Extensive preparation by UN agencies

OCHA spokesperson Mr. Laerke added that an anticipatory mechanism facilitated by the UN has been activated in Cuba and Haiti which lie on the hurricane’s path, triggering a $4 million allocation from the UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) to pre-position food, water, hygiene items and health supplies.

“What are going to be people’s basic survival needs? Food, clean water… shelter and of course medical care,” he said, explaining that when massive flooding hits, clean water is in short supply, driving a surge in health and epidemic risks.  

Asked about the availability of relief items the IFRC’s Mr. Mghendi said that within Jamaica itself enough supplies had been prepositioned to provide immediate assistance to some 800 households. Beyond this, supplies for 60,000 households can be delivered to Jamaica and other countries like the Bahamas “within four hours”, he said.

World must ‘come together’

“After we release them, there will be a need to replenish and that’s where we’re hoping for global solidarity,” Mr. Mghendi insisted.  

“In events like this, the world comes together and we anticipate this will be the case. This is one of the storms of the century and I believe the global community will come together to respond collectively,” he concluded.

Latest news reports say wind speeds have reached 165mph (270km/h) while storm surges of 13 feet (3.9 metres) are expected to lash the Caribbean island nation.

Conditions are expected to significantly worsen with a third of the island already experiencing power cuts amid what US hurricane forecasters are describing as “an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.”

The World Food Programme (WFP) is coordinating a sea-lift operation from Barbados, carrying essential supplies from the International Organization for Migration, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), and WFP itself.

“Some 2,000 relief kits are also planned for deployment once airports reopen and the weather conditions permit flights”, said UN Spokesperson Stephane Dujarric.

In collaboration with the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency and a joint aid hub established in Barbados, WFP is “instrumental” in the ongoing disaster response, with support from the European Union and Canada, emphasised Mr. Dujarric. 

UN ramps up relief efforts 

The slow-moving hurricane is expected to make landfall overnight local time in Cuba, to the northeast – with authorities planning to evacuate around half a million people to safer ground.

In Haiti, authorities have placed the departments of South and Grand’Anse on red alert, while other areas remain on orange alert.

“More than 3,600 people are sheltering in emergency sites in the Grand Sud département, with IOM supporting sheltering of 3,000 people preventively and the setting up of 100 shelters”, underscored Mr. Dujarric.

In addition, the UN and its partners continue to work closely with Haitian authorities to support preparedness and early action.

Here is what UN agencies have lined up so far: 

• WFP has pre-positioned more than 800 metric tons of food to assist 86,000 people in Haiti for two weeks.
• UNICEF has pre-positioned water, sanitation, and hygiene kits for about 14,500 people and nutritional supplies for more than 4,000 children.
• The UN reproductive health agency (UNFPA) has stocked reproductive health kits for 5,000 people and dignity kits for 4,000 people
• The WHO-led Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has provided medical kits for about 11,000 people.

‘Tremendous winds’

The latest forecasts indicate winds reaching 280km per hour – stronger than initially expected, according to the UNESCO Representative in Jamaica, Eric Falt.

“People often overlook the storm surge”, he told us, “which can raise sea levels by three or four meters”.

He also noted that Hurricane Melissa is a slow-moving storm, which poses a major problem.

“It could stay over an area for 12 hours, maybe even two days or more, which causes massive water accumulation.”

Emphasising the Jamaican Government’s “extraordinary” level of preparedness and the strong sense of solidarity across the Caribbean, the UNESCO representative noted that, despite the UN’s extensive readiness efforts, “nature ultimately dictates her will.”

He added that UN agencies continue to work closely together to respond to the evolving situation.