AfD Landslide Leaves Saxony-Anhalt Deadlocked – The European Times

Record 43.8% vote gives the far-right party a commanding victory but no clear route to government

Alternative for Germany has secured its strongest result in a German state election, winning 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt. Yet the party remains three seats short of an outright majority, leaving the state facing difficult negotiations and a potentially unpredictable parliamentary vote for its next minister-president.

The preliminary result, completed early on Monday after votes from all 2,661 electoral districts had been counted, gave the AfD 39 seats in the 83-member Landtag. A majority requires 42.

The Christian Democratic Union, which has led Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years, fell to 17.2% and 15 seats. The Social Democrats received 9.3%, the Greens 8.9% and the Left party 8.6%, giving each of them eight seats. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, known as BSW, narrowly entered parliament with 5.3% and five seats.

Turnout reached 77.8%, according to the preliminary state election results, an increase of 17.5 percentage points from 2021. The AfD gained 23 points, while the CDU lost almost 20.

A victory without a governing majority

AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund can credibly claim an electoral mandate: his party received more votes than the CDU, SPD and Greens combined. But the constitution gives the power to choose the head of government to parliament, not automatically to the largest party.

The arithmetic presents two possible majority blocs on paper. The AfD and BSW together would hold 44 seats. The five parties outside the AfD would also command 44 if they acted collectively. Neither configuration currently resembles a settled coalition.

CDU, SPD, Greens and the Left reiterated on election night that they would not cooperate with the AfD. BSW has criticised the rigid exclusion of the party and has signalled a willingness to discuss individual policies, but its representatives have also said they would not elect either Siegmund or CDU candidate Sven Schulze as minister-president.

That leaves BSW holding disproportionate influence over the next phase. Its five members could help create an AfD-led majority, join an exceptionally broad anti-AfD arrangement, or withhold support from both sides.

The possibility of individual defections or abstentions also cannot be dismissed because the minister-president is elected by secret ballot.

The constitution leaves room for uncertainty

Under Saxony-Anhalt’s government-formation rules, a candidate needs the support of a majority of all lawmakers in the first ballot. If no one succeeds, a second vote must take place within seven days.

After two unsuccessful ballots, the Landtag has another 14 days to consider ending its term and calling an early election. If lawmakers reject dissolution, a further ballot is held in which a majority of the votes cast is sufficient.

This final stage could allow a candidate to take office without the support of 42 members if opponents abstain or divide their votes. It does not guarantee an AfD government, but it makes parliamentary discipline and negotiations between the other parties particularly important.

A minority administration would remain vulnerable when passing budgets and legislation. Siegmund has previously expressed reservations about governing without stable support, while senior AfD figures have argued that the election winner should still present a candidate.

Consequences beyond Magdeburg

The result matters because German states exercise substantial authority over education, policing, cultural policy and the administration of migration rules. They also participate in federal lawmaking through the Bundesrat, where Saxony-Anhalt controls four of 69 votes.

The AfD’s programme includes a more aggressive deportation policy, compulsory work measures for asylum seekers and an attempt to withdraw Saxony-Anhalt from regional public broadcasting agreements. It also proposes expanding home schooling and preventing schools from officially displaying rainbow flags.

Some of those promises would face federal law, constitutional protections or agreements with other states. Even where implementation proved legally difficult, however, control of ministries could reshape administrative priorities, funding decisions and the institutional climate experienced by migrants, teachers, journalists and civil-society organisations.

Saxony-Anhalt’s domestic intelligence service has classified the state AfD organisation as a confirmed right-wing extremist movement since 2023. It says the branch has promoted positions incompatible with human dignity and the democratic principle, including the disparagement of people on ethnic or religious grounds. The AfD rejects the classification and is challenging it through the courts.

The election result therefore creates a democratic tension that cannot be resolved by dismissing voters or by overlooking the nature of the party they supported. The AfD’s mandate is electorally substantial, while the rights of minorities and the constitutional limits on government remain equally binding.

Pressure moves to Germany’s mainstream parties

The scale of the CDU’s defeat will intensify pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz and on conservatives debating whether the longstanding “firewall” against cooperation with the AfD can survive. Abandoning it could normalise a party classified as extremist by state authorities; maintaining it without offering a credible governing alternative risks reinforcing the AfD’s claim that other parties are acting collectively to deny it power.

The challenge is broader than coalition tactics. The result points to entrenched dissatisfaction in eastern Germany, where concerns about economic security, public services, demographic decline and political representation have often been channelled into support for the far right.

As previous European debates over migration and democratic resilience have shown, simply borrowing exclusionary language rarely removes the political forces that introduced it. It can instead shift the boundaries of acceptable policy, a concern examined by The European Times in its reporting on Europe’s democratic direction.

Saxony-Anhalt has delivered an unambiguous rejection of its previous political order. What remains unresolved is whether that rejection produces an AfD government, an unprecedented coalition of opponents or a fragile minority administration. The conduct of the negotiations will determine not only who governs in Magdeburg, but how Germany responds when electoral legitimacy and constitutional vigilance come into direct tension.