Gazans continue heading home as ‘fragile ceasefire’ holds
Interview with Expansión
Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 4 November 2025
11 November 2025
Might the European Central Bank lower interest rates further?
The current level is appropriate, but we will continue to be data-dependent and will decide one meeting at a time. At the last meeting we kept interest rates unchanged, as the data since the September meeting largely confirmed September’s assessment that inflation is converging towards our 2% target in the medium term, stabilising around that level by the end of the projection horizon.
Our monetary policy is in a good place. It’s true that the economic environment remains uncertain, so we cannot commit to a pre-determined interest rate path. What we need to do is to make sure that the rates are consistent with achieving our target, and so far they are.
Could that good place change for monetary policy if the December projections point to a level of inflation below 2% in 2028? It would be too low for the entire horizon.
I don’t want to pre-empt the December projections. We’ll have to wait and see what they indicate. For now, we’re projecting that inflation will stabilise at around 2% in the medium term. The risks of inflation turning out higher than expected are balanced with those of inflation being lower than expected. Our price stability objective is symmetric and we are equally concerned about upward and downward deviations of inflation from our target but, overall, what we are now seeing is that it will converge to our 2% target in the medium term.
What are those risks that you’re keeping a watchful eye on?
The risks of seeing stronger growth in prices include further fragmentation of global trade, which could disrupt supply chains and push import prices up; the increase in defence and infrastructure spending, which could lead to inflationary pressure; as well as extreme weather events, and the climate and nature crises more broadly, which could drive food prices higher.
Among the risks of lower inflation I would include the appreciation of the euro, which could reduce demand for euro area exports; and a re-routing to the euro area of products previously shipped to the United States.
The appreciation of the euro that you refer to has been sizeable and it could continue, with the Federal Reserve now cutting its rates.
We are dependent on data when setting our policy, not on the Fed. And we do not set a specific exchange rate target.
We do, of course, monitor the euro’s exchange rate against other currencies because it could affect inflation. However, its impact on inflation is not necessarily linear as it depends on the macroeconomic environment, the level of inflation and the size and nature of the exchange rate movement. Our models also show that the effect could take years to pass through fully, which means that any impact from the recent appreciation would need to be balanced against previous exchange rate movements.
What is your assessment of where the Spanish economy currently stands?
Growth in Spain is exceptionally good. It is now the fastest-growing of the large euro area economies thanks to factors such as immigration, a robust labour market, the resilience of exports and tourism, as well as low exposure to the United States and China. Spain is also a net energy exporter thanks to its leadership in renewables. The structural reforms adopted a decade ago strengthened its financial system and laid the foundations for growth.
Inflation in Spain is around 2.5%, with growth in services sector prices somewhat persistent owing to wage growth and high demand.
And what of the risks?
Spain is not without its challenges. The country has an insufficient housing supply, which has meant considerable increases in both property and rental prices. Moreover, GDP growth is not fully reflected in a per capita increase in GDP or in labour productivity.
Spain, like the rest of Europe, needs to continue investing to be more productive and competitive, addressing long-term challenges such as climate and energy crises, and the need to invest in defence and to improve in the areas of innovation and infrastructure.
For much of the year, Europe has faced different challenges and uncertainties. Where do we find ourselves currently?
The news has been relatively good recently. Some of the risks that we’ve been talking about have gradually diminished. The US-EU trade agreement and the ceasefire in the Middle East are clearly positive factors, along with progress made on the trade negotiations between the United States and China. Additional government spending on defence and infrastructure could also help boost growth.
However, there is still a lot of uncertainty and also downside risks to growth. For example, we could see a further deterioration in global trade relations, which could hinder economic activity. This could negatively affect supply chains, reduce exports, hit confidence and weigh on investment and consumption. Additionally, a deterioration in market sentiment could lead to tighter financial conditions, increase risk aversion and make firms and households less willing to invest and consume. And then, of course, there are ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially Russia’s unjustified war in Ukraine.
Can this defence spending that the EU has committed to become a real growth opportunity for the region?
Yes, it could enhance growth. It all depends on how investments are structured. Some investments, like spending on infrastructure, could have a larger positive effect on growth than others.
But defence spending should not be viewed purely as a growth strategy. For this, there are clearly more targeted investments and structural measures that could improve growth in Europe by increasing competitiveness and productivity.
The most obvious ones are to complete the banking union and the capital markets union, and to remove the barriers that remain in the Single Market.
How do you view the current robustness and profitability of the banking sector?
Europe’s banks are strong and healthy, with sound capital and liquidity levels. They have held up well even in an uncertain and exceptionally volatile economic setting. This shows the solidity of the regulatory and supervisory framework put in place after the great financial crisis. Remember, the crisis was not “great” in a positive sense: it was huge and devastating. Today, banks can play their part in the economy, both during good and bad times.
That said, there are still long-term challenges to transform current profitability into lasting resilience, particularly in the face of digitalisation, the climate and nature crises and geopolitical uncertainty.
Europe’s banks performed well in this year’s stress tests and have posted strong growth in non-interest income, enabling them to maintain solid profitability even if net interest margins narrow, with balance sheets supported by the strength of households and firms. In any event, we remain alert to the geopolitical, macroeconomic and climate and nature related risks and have asked that banks also take these into account.
Some banks take issue with the severity of the post-crisis regulation and capital requirements, which they consider excessive.
It’s possible that memories of the crisis may have faded somewhat over time. As a central bank, our task is to ensure price stability and, as supervisors, to ensure a safe and sound banking system. We are mindful of the threats that could emerge if these two public goods are not properly protected. In the end, it is up to society to assess the level of risk it wants its banking system to assume.
Banks are calling for simplification, but some fear that beneath this idea lies deregulation, which could undermine financial robustness.
Legislation is never perfect. It’s important to look at whether it can be simplified, provided the resilience of the banking system is preserved. But post-crisis international standards, such as Basel III, are the basis for maintaining stability in the financial system. Our bank lending survey indicates that capital constraints have not been a limiting factor for bank lending. Instead, the main constraints are driven chiefly by risk tolerance and perceptions, as well as competition.
Simplification should not mean deregulation. The priority should be implementing policies that promote growth and competitiveness, completing the banking and capital markets union, removing barriers to the deepening of the Single Market and facilitating private investment to meet long-term challenges, such as the green and digital transitions – not watering down the rules that keep our banks safe and sound.
As supervisors we are also working to improve our efficiency and effectiveness, with a shorter and more targeted Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process – or SREP – for setting capital requirements based on a bank’s risks, a multi-year approach to risks and simpler supervisory processes – for example, in the area of securitisations, the “fast-track” for significant risk transfers. We’re committed to simplifying wherever possible, without sacrificing resilience.
Moreover, the Governing Council has set up a High-Level Task Force, under the leadership of our Vice-President, Luis de Guindos, which will propose recommendations for prudential simplification by the end of the year.
There is now much doubt over the Basel standards. Should Europe implement them even though other regions do not?
After the global financial crisis we learned that we need a solid framework for international banks. Given the interconnectedness of the global banking system, it is important for all jurisdictions to implement Basel III fully.
And does that not threaten to leave European banks at a disadvantage, if other regions do not implement them?
Consistent implementation is essential to ensure that capital requirements adequately reflect risks and that banks have sufficient buffers if faced with future crises and uncertainties. An international level playing field is crucial, and the best way to achieve this is for everyone to implement Basel III.
Various banking mergers have recently been affected by political interference. Do you consider this a problem?
I won’t comment on specific mergers. Generally speaking, though, to some degree political debate on significant transactions is inevitable. But political matters should not reach a point where they jeopardise the principles of prudence and the Single Market. As far as we are concerned, the law is crystal clear: any such transactions are to be assessed on prudential criteria.
Mergers should be assessed by the competent authorities based on the applicable technical and legal criteria, and the ECB does so in its supervisory role. Ultimately, it assesses the prudential resilience of the merged banks based on a limited set of criteria set out in EU law.
Mergers – particularly cross-border mergers – can be beneficial in that they can be a means of creating more competitive, resilient and diversified banks, benefiting customers, the financial system and the economy as a whole.
Progress on European financial integration has lost momentum because there are still many obstacles in the way of cross-border mergers. This is why it is crucial to complete the banking union, including a European Deposit Insurance Scheme, and to eliminate barriers to the deepening of the Single Market.
Is Europe politically, socially and technically ready for pan-European banks?
From a financial and institutional standpoint, yes, it is. Two of the three pillars of the banking union are already in place and up and running. All that is needed now is the political will to eliminate the remaining obstacles. The critical barriers are not prudential; a deeper banking union and Single Market are technically possible.
From a social standpoint, sound and competitive banks help keep our financial system stable and our economy competitive, improving the supply of services to households and firms.
What will we see first, a completed banking union or truly transnational banks?
I believe that a deeper banking union would facilitate the creation of truly pan-European banks.
That said, cross-border mergers could also serve as a tool for the further integration of the European banking system. Under the right conditions, these operations could make the system more resilient to crises, help reduce costs and improve profitability and optimise liquidity management at the group level. They can also help banks to diversify, facilitating both access to financing in different markets and investment in digitalisation.
There seems to be less “green momentum” in Europe now, overshadowed by the focus on simplification and defence. But the ECB is pressing ahead and has just sanctioned ABANCA for inadequate climate and environmental risk management.
We are simply following up on the deadline set for the bank in 2023, when ABANCA received a binding supervisory decision, as we specified in our press release yesterday. This was part of a broader effort to get the banks we supervise to adequately manage their climate and environmental risks, adhering to a thorough escalation process. And we are happy to see that banks have made big strides in this area, which shows that our supervisory efforts have been effective in the vast majority of cases.
More generally, while we work to keep the banks we supervise safe and sound, this also helps make Europe more resilient and reduce our exposure to shocks.
World News in Brief: Ukraine war update, Philippines typhoon latest, demographic shift in Europe and Central Asia
Between Friday and early morning Monday, at least 15 civilians were killed and over 70 were injured, according to OCHA.
On Saturday night, missile and drone attacks affected 10 regions: Chernihiv, Dnipro, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava and Sumy.
Matthias Schmale, the humanitarian coordinator for the country, condemned the attacks, saying “civilians and civilian objects are fully protected under international humanitarian law, and are not a target.”
Power outages in major cities
The attacks also disrupted electricity, heating and water supply, making it even harder for vulnerable people to cope amid cold winter temperatures.
Energy and residential infrastructure were damaged in many regions including Chernihiv, Odesa and Poltava, while major cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa are experiencing power outages, with electricity available only for a few hours a day.
The UN and partners quickly mobilized to provide emergency shelter materials, blankets, hygiene items, hot drinks and psychosocial support in several areas, OCHA said.
Philippines: Typhoon Fung-Wong displaces hundreds of thousands
The UN is supporting Government-led efforts in the Philippines after Super Typhoon Fung-Wong – locally known as Uwan – slammed into northern Luzon on Sunday, triggering massive evacuations and widespread disruption.
According to aid coordination office, OCHA, more than 1.3 million people were evacuated across 13 of the country’s 18 regions before the storm made landfall, in one of the Philippines’ largest ever pre-emptive operations.
Over 480,000 people remain displaced, sheltering in some 6,000 evacuation centres.
The Government is leading the emergency response, with UN agencies and partners providing support.
Life-saving early warnings
Cash assistance has already been distributed, while food, tents, hygiene kits and other supplies were pre-positioned in advance.
The World Food Programme (WFP) said its teams were on standby and assessing needs in affected areas, with ready-to-eat meals and rice stocks prepared for distribution in coordination with national authorities.
UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator Arnaud Peral praised the Philippines’ swift evacuations and early warning systems, saying they had “undoubtedly saved lives”.
OCHA warned that more intense typhoons like Fung-Wong are likely as climate change warms regional seas, underscoring the need for stronger preparedness.
Demographic shifts reshape Europe and Central Asia
Europe is getting older while parts of Central Asia are seeing a surge in young people – a population divide that could transform economies and societies across the region, according to a new UN report.
The analysis warns that Europe’s shrinking, ageing workforce and low birth rates are putting pressure on health systems, pensions and labour markets, while Central Asia’s expanding youth population offers both opportunity and challenge if decent jobs and education can keep pace.
Jobs challenge
Experts say countries need to rethink how they prepare for the future – by widening access to quality jobs; encouraging women, migrants and older people to participate in the workforce, and investing in lifelong learning and social protection.
The joint brief, released by the International Labour Organization (ILO), the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), calls for stronger policies that make economies more inclusive and resilient.
Demographic change, it notes, isn’t just about numbers; it’s about how societies adapt to ensure that everyone, regardless of age or background, can contribute and benefit from growth.
Council and Parliament strike deal to simplify Common Agricultural Policy
Council and European Parliament reach provisional agreement to simplify Common Agricultural Policy.
Sudan: 89,000 civilians have fled El Fasher
Since the Rapid Support Forces militia – which is fighting the military government – took El Fasher after more than 500 days of siege in late October, nearly 89,000 people have fled Tawila, Melit, Saraf Omra and other locations.
Some families have sought refuge in Tina, near the Sudan-Chad border, where already overwhelmed host communities and U.N. partners are preparing to welcome new arrivals, U.N. deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq told correspondents in New York.
Meanwhile, violence is escalating in the Kordofan region, leading to increasing numbers of civilian casualties and new waves of displacement.
The UN called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities” as well as the protection of civilians and aid workers, an end to attacks on hospitals and civilian infrastructure and unhindered access to aid.
De-escalation offer
The Personal Envoy of the UN Secretary-General for Sudan Ramtane Lamamra invited fighters to begin technical negotiations with the United Nations focused on de-escalation and the protection of civilians, Mr. Haq told reporters.
The envoy held consultations with the African Union, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United States and others.
The UN is working with partners to secure a ceasefire after two and a half years of brutal war, unhindered humanitarian access and to get the parties to de-escalate the situation, but “so far there has been no real progress to report”, Mr Haq added.
Climate aggravates conflicts
The crisis on the Chad-Sudan border is being further intensified by the impact of climate change, as links grow between conflict and climate emergency, a report says. new report released Monday by the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR).
As of the middle of this year, 117 million people had been displaced by war, violence and persecution worldwide, while some 250 million have been internally displaced by weather-related disasters over the past decade, the report said.
Sudanese who sought refuge in Chad face a desperate humanitarian situation. Those who recently arrived are receiving less than 10 liters of water per day – well below emergency standards, according to the agency.
Chad and South Sudan, where nearly 1.3 million people have fled Sudan since fighting between rival armies began in April 2023, are among the countries least equipped to deal with the climate emergency.
Originally published at Almouwatin.com
Illicit weapons fuel conflicts around the world, officials warn
They called for coordinated global action to end illicit flows that fuel conflict, organized crime and displacement – from Haiti to the Sahel.
Adedeji Ebo, deputy head of disarmament, highlighted that despite recent measures to strengthen arms control frameworks, “more than a billion firearms are in circulation around the world”, fueling conflicts, terrorism and criminal networks in several regions.
“The illicit trade and misuse of small arms and light weapons fuels armed violence, terrorism and organized crime,» he said.
“Weapons diverted from national stockpiles – or at any point in the supply chain – could end up in the hands of non-state armed groups. »
Proliferation of “ghost weapons”
He also highlighted the growing distribution of 3D-printed “ghost guns” without serial numbers, which are increasingly found on illicit markets in Western Europe and Latin America.
The human toll is heavy, he said. In 2024, the UN recorded at least 48,000 conflict-related civilian deaths, with small arms responsible for up to 30% in some contexts.
“These abuses are avoidable,» he stressed, calling for stricter stock controls, tracking systems and respect for arms embargoes.
Adedeji Ebo, Deputy High Representative for Disarmament Affairs, briefs the Security Council.
“A threat without borders”
Roraima Ana Andriani, UN Special Representative to INTERPOL – the international police and crime-fighting organization – has warned that illicit firearms trafficking is now deeply intertwined with cross-border organized crime, as networks use weapons to control territory, protect illicit economies and expand their influence.
“This is a transnational chain of violence that can only be combatted through transnational cooperation,» she said.
INTERPOL’s global iARMS database contains more than two million records of lost, stolen and trafficked weapons, she noted, supporting multinational operations that have seized thousands of firearms and dismantled networks linked to terrorism, trafficking and illegal mining.
But she warned that policing alone is not enough.
“No measure taken in isolation can prevent the circulation of these weapons throughout the world,she said, urging the Council to explicitly integrate INTERPOL’s role into sanctions and arms embargo mandates.
The African region under great pressure
Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the African Union’s top representative for silencing the guns, said the proliferation of small arms is “a cancer” leading to instability across the continent, from the Sahel to the Great Lakes region.
“These weapons are used to free horrific violence and suffering in the Darfur region from Sudan,“, he said, referring to the ongoing situation atrocities reported in El Fasher.
He said small arms control is “a prerequisite for lasting peace” and highlighted AU efforts to harmonize stockpile management and support amnesty and disarmament initiatives.
Africa Amnesty Month and related programs have led to the destruction of tens of thousands of weapons, he said, but the scale of the problem remains vast.
A wide view of the UN Security Council’s open debate on small arms and light weapons.
Haiti: Armed gangs control the territory
Arnoux Descardes, executive director of the Haitian civil society organization VDH, described the acute impact of illicit firearms in Haiti, where armed groups control main urban areas and main transport routes.
“Illegal firearms trafficking is a crisis multiplier,”It is estimated that between 270,000 and 500,000 firearms are in circulation in the country, but only about 45,000 are legally registered, he said.
“The proliferation of small arms in Haiti fuels insecurity and paralyzes social and economic life,” he said, calling for stricter border controls and disarmament programs.
Call for sustained and coordinated action
Mr. Ebo concluded by warning that “weapons produced and transferred today risk fueling instability tomorrow.”
He urged the Security Council integrate small arms control into peace operations, peacebuilding strategies and sanctions monitoring.
“Our responsibility is clear,” he said. “We must prevent the diversion and illicit manufacturing of small arms and light weapons, otherwise we will face the consequences of growing insecurity.»
Originally published at Almouwatin.com
From promises to action: leaders push for faster climate progress at COP30
“This is the moment to combine opportunity with urgency,” Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said, calling for a decisive defeat of climate denial and faster action to maintain the 1.5°C target.
As negotiations begin at the two-week annual summit, held this year in a town at the mouth of the Amazon, UN climate chief Simon Stiell urged delegates not to “bicker” but to focus on turning ambition into action.
“Your job here is not to fight against each other – your job here is to fight this climate crisis together,” he said. “This is the growth story of the 21st century – the economic transformation of our time. »
Cautious optimism as pledges rise
A sense of cautious optimism marked the first day of COP30, following the announcement that dozens of new national climate plans – known as the NDC – brought the total to 113 countries now committed to the fight against global warming. Together, they account for almost 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions – a significant step forward in the race to control temperatures.
A preliminary assessment by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which organizes the annual COPs, suggests that these commitments could reduce emissions by 12% by 2035. This is progress, but not yet enough to guarantee the 1.5°C target. The challenge now is to transform promises into action at a pace appropriate to the scale of the crisis.
The emissions curve is starting to bend
In his opening remarksUN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said commitments and agreements reached by successive COPs were starting to show their impact, with the global emissions curve now starting to bend downward.
He acknowledged that much remains to be done, but stressed that Belém – “home to the mouth of the mighty Amazon River” – can serve as inspiration.
“The Amazon is not a single river, but a vast system supported by more than a thousand tributaries,” he said. “Similarly, the implementation of the results of the COP must be driven by multiple streams of international cooperation. »
No country can go it alone
Mr. Stiell warned that “no national plan can solve this problem alone,” emphasizing that no country can afford the economic shock of climate disasters that reduce GDP by double digits.
“It makes no economic or political sense,” he said, “to stand idly by while catastrophic droughts destroy crops and send food prices skyrocketing.” He called it “unforgivable” that extreme weather conditions continue to claim millions of lives when proven solutions already exist.
Among the main priorities of COP30, the UN climate chief highlighted:
“We cannot exceed the limit of 1.5°C”
In his opening speech, President Lula warned that “climate change is not a threat to the future – it is a tragedy of the present.”
Citing Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean and a tornado in Paraná, the president said this was “the COP of truth,” warning that denial and delay are no longer options. “We are moving in the right direction, but at the wrong speed,” he said. “Crossing 1.5°C is a risk we cannot take. »
He then forcefully called for an end to climate denialism, emphasizing that: “In the age of disinformation, obscurantists reject not only scientific evidence but also the progress of multilateralism. They control algorithms, sow hatred, sow fear and attack institutions, science and universities. It is time to impose a new defeat on the denialists. Without it Paris Agreementthe world is heading towards catastrophic warming of nearly 5°C by the end of the century. »
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André Corrêa do Lago (left) of Brazil and president of COP30, greets President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva during the opening of the conference in Belém.
A path beyond dependence on fossil fuels
President Lula urged world leaders to adopt ambitious climate commitments and keep adaptation at the heart of national strategies. He called for “a road map for humanity to overcome, in a just and planned way, its dependence on fossil fuels, reverse deforestation and mobilize the resources needed to do so.”
To support this vision, he announced the creation of a new fund intended to support the energy transition in developing countries, financed by revenues from oil exploration.
The Leaders’ Summit, held on November 6 and 7 in Belém, has already mobilized $5.5 billion for the Rainforest Fund Forever – a fund designed to reward nations that protect tropical forests. Other collective commitments include recognizing indigenous land rights, quadrupling sustainable fuel production, and linking climate action to the fight against hunger, poverty, and environmental racism.
Bringing COP30 to the heart of the Amazon was, in Lula’s words, “a difficult but necessary task”, giving the world the opportunity to witness the realities of the most biodiverse biome on the planet, home to more than 50 million people and 400 indigenous groups. “May the serenity of the forest inspire the clarity of thought needed to see what needs to be done,” he said.
‘COP of implementation, adaptation and science’
Meanwhile, André Corrêa do Lago, President of COP30, presided over the official opening of the summit following a musical performance performed by members of the Guajajara indigenous people.
He urged delegates to make it the “COP for climate policy implementation, adaptation and economic integration – and above all, the COP that listens and believes in science.”
He concluded by recognizing the crucial role of indigenous peoples as guardians of the Amazon, the region now at the center of global attention.
Originally published at Almouwatin.com
Social development up close: UN News heads to Doha summit
At Second World Summit for Social Development In Doha, our team tested a quick, understandable format designed to bring readers closer to the action – to what is actually being said, decided and debated in real time.
Working side-by-side with the UN Meetings Coverage Section – the press officers who follow every statement and development in the international debate – we distilled hours of discussions into precise end-of-day snapshots.
Each update details the position of the countries, their agreements (or not) and what’s next.
Over three jam-packed days of high-level plenaries and panel discussions, delegates celebrated 30 years of the historic 1995 Copenhagen Summit, reflecting on how far social development has come – and how far it still has to go.
Poverty reduction, decent jobs, social protection and inclusion were at the top of the agenda, along with how climate impacts and rising debt are reshaping policy priorities around the world.
What you will find in the summaries:
- The main messages and priorities of the governments of the different regions
- Emerging areas of consensus – and tension
- How global pressures are changing the social policy landscape
This pilot project is part of our efforts to make UN decision-making clearer, faster and closer to the people affected.
Read the full daily recaps:
Day 1: Doha: World Summit opens with commitment to accelerate social progress
Day 2: Doha: Second day of World Summit highlights urgency to invest in people and peace
Day 3: Doha: World Summit ends with renewed commitment to leave no one behind
Originally published at Almouwatin.com
Gazans continue to return home despite maintaining ‘fragile ceasefire’
A month after the start of the ceasefire in Gaza, families continue to slowly return to their former homes and communities wherever access is allowed, the United Nations agency that helps Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, said Monday.
Originally published at Almouwatin.com
