“El Niño will also give an extra boost to global temperatures,” said WMO scientist Alvaro Silva. “We know that during El Niño years, the global temperatures normally reach record levels.”

Key points

• El Niño has developed in tropical Pacific
• Rapid development expected from July to September
• El Niño typically peaks between November and February
• Countries urged to act on WMO warning, to save lives and livelihoods

According to WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, strong El Niño conditions are expected to develop rapidly from July to September, with “high confidence” in this outlook. 

It is based on multi-model forecasting from WMO partners which indicates a “consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures” across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in monitored regions.

Regional variations 

On land, the outlook is equally worrying. “It’s the first week of July, it’s the start of what is traditionally the hottest month of the year,” WMO spokesperson Clare Nullis told journalists in Geneva. “And yet already in June we’ve seen record-breaking temperatures in many parts of Europe; just as an example, Germany last weekend saw a new national temperature record of 41.7°C.”

The WMO update highlights a “prolonged and dangerous heatwave” in the central and eastern United States until the end of this week and into the Independence Day weekend, flagged by the US National Weather Service.

In addition, there are likely to be drier than average conditions in Central America and the Caribbean, along with North and South America.

Drier weather patterns are also forecast in parts of Indonesia and Southeast Asia during the monsoon season, but wetter conditions are anticipated during the rainy season from September to December in East Africa. It is also possible that East Africa may be wetter than normal and face flooding because of another important climate driver, the Indian Ocean Dipole, which WMO describes as a possible development.

The El Niño alert has prompted an “unprecedented mobilization” by WMO, its members worldwide and partners in regional climate centres, to support governments by providing timely forecasts to save lives and protect livelihoods, the agency said.

No time to lose

“We have a window to act for preparedness for early action. And this window is narrowing in some regions,” WMO’s Mr. Silva said. For areas where drought is anticipated, priorities include ensuring that there is enough water for agriculture, energy production and other key activities.

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO); they are one of the most powerful climate drivers.

The naturally occurring phenomenon is characterized by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and 12 months. They often begin developing between March and June, reach peak intensity between November and February, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures in the year following their onset.

The effects of El Niño vary depending on the intensity, duration, the time of year and also how it interacts with other climate variability modes, including the Indian Ocean Dipole. 

Not all regions of the world are affected, and even within a region, impacts can be different. “Even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur,” WMO explains.

The agency classifies El Niño and La Niña events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. 

“The intensity of El Niño is important because it increases the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events in different parts of the world…on top of long-term climate change due to human activities,” WMO’s Mr. Silva stressed. 

Venezuelan authorities have declared seven days of national mourning. At least 2,295 people have died and 11,256 have been injured, with around 6,400 rescued so far.

Fourteen camps for displaced people have been set up in La Guaira alone, as hospitals remain under severe strain and search and rescue operations continue.

Two nights sleeping rough

Daniela Jaramillo arrived at Playa Grande with her husband, her father, her five children – the youngest just ten months old – and the family dog, who was pregnant, after two nights sleeping rough outside a police station.

The earthquake struck as the family talked in the hallway of their home. “We grabbed the children, put them in the middle and held on to each other,” Ms Jaramillo said. “We watched the pieces coming down, the walls. The most important thing was protecting the children.”

When the shaking eased, they ran for a sturdier-looking building across the street – only for gas canisters to start exploding. They scaled a wall to reach open ground. “Everything blew up,” her father recalled.

Two nights outdoors followed. “We were very afraid,” Ms Jaramillo said. Her house was damaged but not destroyed, something she mentions almost apologetically, aware other families lost far more.

Bodies under rubble

“Thank God we had no loss of life,” she said. “It would be selfish to say a house is the most urgent thing right now. While we’re stable here, across the way there are still people trapped under rubble.”

The Government has designated Playa Grande as one of three sites where the UN system is providing assistance, alongside the Polideportivo Vargas and the César Nieves stadium.

The World Food Programme (WFP) aims to have a communal kitchen running for displaced families by Friday. Children’s agency, UNICEF, is identifying child protection spaces and working on water and sanitation. The UN migration agency (IOM) is helping plan temporary shelter.

“Search and rescue teams are still working tirelessly. Up until last night they were still finding people alive,” said Vanessa May, head of the UN humanitarian affairs office for Venezuela.

Coordination with authorities is under way at what officials are calling “transitional camps,” she said, aimed at providing healthcare, food security, nutrition and psychosocial support in one place.

Washed out

Conditions at the camp are harsh. Temperatures climb from around 24ºC in the morning to near 29ºC, and recent rain has soaked tents, bedding and belongings. “We’d rigged something up with sheets, but a huge bucket of water just came down,” Ms Jaramillo said. “The children got soaked, our things got soaked. Most people lost their belongings all over again.”

Amid the loss, one small piece of good news: the family’s dog, rescued from their damaged house by Ms Jaramillo’s father, gave birth to five puppies two days into their stay at the camp. A volunteer Brazilian veterinarian confirmed the mother and pups were healthy.

As evening falls, families prepare for another night under canvas. Ms Jaramillo said she tries not to think too far ahead. “There are still people missing.”

According to reports, at least 18 people died in the capital, where densely populated residential areas sustained significant damage and several neighbourhoods had to be evacuated.

“Search and rescue operations are ongoing to save people trapped beneath the rubble of collapsed residential buildings, including a 15-year-old girl and her family,” said Matthias Schmale, the UN’s top aid official in Ukraine.

In a statement condemning the violence, Mr. Schmale noted that many of Kyiv’s three million residents spent up to 11 hours in bomb shelters or taking cover at home “to the terrifying sounds of war”.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres added his strong condemnation of the attacks.

In addition to those killed in Kyiv, nearly 90 people were injured, including several children, in what the city’s mayor described as the “most massive attack”, while national media reported apartment blocks and a hotel set ablaze.

Medics hit

Among those injured were several health workers and ambulance drivers after an ambulance station was struck and several vehicles were damaged.

Nearly every part of the capital sustained damage, Mr. Schmale explained, with multiple homes, a hotel, market and other civilian facilities destroyed or damaged.

Between December 2025 and May 2026, civilian casualties increased by 40 per cent compared with the same period a year earlier, according to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine.

Deadly pattern

“Civilians in Kyiv and across the country should not be bracing for yet another attack; they are protected under international humanitarian law,” Mr. Schmale stressed.

He noted that the latest attacks on densely populated areas across Ukraine are part of a “continuing deadly pattern”, while in Russia and occupied Ukrainian Crimea, a growing number of swarm drone attacks attributed in media reports to Ukrainian forces have caused major disruption to oil facilities and closed Moscow airports.

Across Ukraine, aid organizations provide emergency support to nearly one million people affected by strikes by Russia, whose full-scale invasion began on 24 February 2022.

This vital relief includes first aid, shelter, protection, cash assistance and mental health support – a widespread but largely unseen consequence of the war.

“The loss and fear caused by this and every other attack intensify the psychological trauma countless people have to bear,” said Mr. Schmale. “The longer the war goes on, the deeper these invisible scars become.”

Secretary-General António Guterres strongly condemned the overnight attacks and reiterated his appeal for urgent de-escalation, leading to a full, immediate and unconditional ceasefire.

“Any attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure, wherever they occur, are a clear violation of international humanitarian law and must stop immediately”. 

‘Another night of horror for families’

The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) is also deeply saddened by reports of a seven-year-old girl killed in the Dnipro region on Thursday.

Speaking to UN News after visiting some of the affected sites, UNICEF Chief of Communications and Advocacy Toby Fricker described the severe damage he’d witnessed to residential buildings and a nearby kindergarten.

Mr. Fricker said that “spending nights in shelters during the war in Ukraine is having a serious impact on children’s well-being”. Many families lack nearby shelters and must travel or seek safer places like metro stations, which has become a normalized but abnormal part of life after years of war. 

Listen to the full interview with UNICEF:

An assessment by the UN-backed Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) found that all eight health facilities it reviewed in La Guaira, Caracas and Miranda need immediate outside help.

Three have structural damage. Authorities have reported 2,295 deaths, 11,267 injuries and 12,841 people displaced or seriously affected.

Overwhelmed wards

At Vargas-IVSS hospital in La Guaira, 96 patients are crammed into a ward built for eight beds. The morgue is overwhelmed, the blood bank holds just 35 units, and both ventilators in the trauma unit are out of action for lack of power. There is no working phone or internet connection to track patients.

Water arrives by hand-carried containers several times a day. Medical waste has piled up in the corridors. PAHO has ranked Vargas-IVSS its top priority facility, even though the building itself is structurally sound.

At Rafael Medina Jiménez hospital, also in La Guaira, capacity has dropped from 108 beds to 35. Assessors also found patient transport problems, supply shortages, growing surgical waiting lists and biosecurity failures.

Responders among the affected

Ian Clark, who leads the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Health Emergencies Programme, told reporters in Geneva that the disaster has struck the responders too.

“It’s worth pausing to recognise the incredible work being done by local communities and national and international response teams in really difficult circumstances,” he said. “In many cases, those responding at community and national level are people directly affected, who have friends and family affected by the earthquake.”

Several health workers remain missing, Mr. Clark said, including the official who coordinated maternal care across La Guaira – a gap that is already hampering efforts to track pregnant women in need of care.

He added that Venezuela’s health system entered the crisis already weakened, with many hospitals facing shortages of up to 37 per cent of essential medicines after years of underinvestment and financial crisis. 

Tens of thousands of health workers have emigrated from the country in recent years, he said, though he could not give an exact figure.

Aid pours in

PAHO has delivered 2.18 tonnes of medicines and supplies to La Guaira’s regional health authority, including trauma kits, injectable medicines, protective equipment and 320 body bags. A further four tonnes arrived from Panama.

A 48-bed field hospital with four intensive care posts and two operating theatres is now running in La Guaira, PAHO said, with more medical teams on the way.

The UN health agency’s (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said it had released $1.5 million from its Contingency Fund for Emergencies, with another 28 tonnes of medical supplies due to arrive from Dubai. PAHO and WHO have appealed for nearly $24 million to sustain the health response over the next six months.

Displacement spreads

The crisis is no longer confined to La Guaira. The UN humanitarian affairs office is coordinating support in eight states, including Zulia, Táchira and Anzoátegui, as displaced families move on in search of safety.

In La Guaira, sports venues including the José María Vargas complex and the César Nieves and Playa Grande stadiums have become hubs for healthcare, food, water and protection services. UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, is seeking $14.85 million to support up to 30,000 people with shelter and essential aid over the next six months.